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  • SpirantCrayon22
    1456 posts

    Reda's Rubbish today - Thunderbird for the fourth time. Four from the Taranis set have never appeared.

  • TheNorfolkian
    1193 posts

    @spirantcrayon22 Every time I see that bird in Reda’s store, I think of the Thunderbird from Heroes of Might and Magic III: (https://mightandmagic.fandom.com/wiki/Thunderbird_(H3)).

  • SpirantCrayon22
    1456 posts

    Today in Reda's Rubbish - Modern Day (Back) for the fourth time, not one of the half-dozen items that haven't appeared yet (such as the chest or left arm tattoo).

  • bielik01
    1719 posts

    @AndyReloads just made a great summary of Reda's performance over the last 15 months.



    In just one picture:

  • TheNorfolkian
    1193 posts

    @bielik01 What a great video analysis. I wish we could put a ‘sticky’ on this video for the entire forum.

    @SpirantCrayon22 Any doubts anyone had about your commitment to tracking Reda’s Store have now been demolished. However, it is too bad that AndyReloads probably doesn’t know that you are doing good work here (if he did, he’d mention you). That said, this forum doesn’t exactly make hard analytics easy to present.

  • TheNorfolkian
    1193 posts

    @spirantcrayon22 @bielik01 OMG... literally less than a day after AndyReloads exposes the Reda Store scam, Ubisoft unloads the High Elf Bracers today (finally... a second gear piece, at last!). What more proof do we need that there is an agency of intelligent will behind the ‘random’ offering of goods?

  • SpirantCrayon22
    1456 posts

    @thenorfolkian

    I'm going to throw you here - the items are indeed (mostly) random as far as I can tell, I think AndyReloads is mostly wrong on that one point. Mostly, not completely, and on that point only.

    The numbers of what's actually appeared are very close to what is expected for a Poisson distribution. I think that's what applies here, when there are discrete events that have a particular chance of success. If I have a pool of 600 items and select one randomly 750 times then I expect this kind of distribution:

    number of times an item appears . . .
    never - 172
    once - 215
    twice - 134
    thrice - 56
    four times - 17
    five times - 4
    six times - 1

    now for Reda's Rubbish the actual number of times items have appeared is this . . .
    never - 218
    once - 157
    twice - 137
    thrice - 54
    four times - 22
    five times - 12
    six times - 1

    That's probably boring enough for nearly everyone but my take on the numbers is twofold. 1. Some variation comes from the fact not all items were always available. 2. It is not completely random, that seems clear enough to me from observation of what's appeared, eg, (a) all of a sudden there are three Draugr/whatever in one day, (b) some sets are very clearly withheld, eg, High Elf for however long and (c) the number of items appearing five times . . . that doesn't look random.

  • TheNorfolkian
    1193 posts

    @spirantcrayon22 Woah... you blew my mind right there. Granted, I could still argue that Ubisoft made the conscious decision of will to implement some disproportionate version of the Poisson distribution, if that is indeed what is at work here, and for that we can chastise them endlessly.

    If I were you, I’d throw out a PowerPoint-based YouTube video and tag AndyReloads... or call him out with this info on Reddit/Twitter.

  • SpirantCrayon22
    1456 posts

    @thenorfolkian

    Oh, yeah, it's bad whether or not it's random. Fourteen months for the first complete set via Reda? That's atrocious. Clearly a decision to implement something bad. AndyReloads is quite right about it being awful, prodding people towards spending cash. The point that one of the developers made about it improving in the long term means they know it's bad and already have in place a plan to "improve" it, ie, a model of what they want to do. So they know and they don't care, so they believe they're maximising income.

    As I've mentioned, I think they'd get more if Reda was better, more people willing to spend a little bit of money to finish off Now we know the time-scale to complete a set is in the years bracket . . . well, it was never meant to work for people putting in the hours to "get stuff for free".

  • LA_Frankie
    Original poster 113 posts

    @AndyReloads video says it all.

    The statistics from Reda / Opal system are a total embarrassment. What an absolute sham.

    Ubisoft has lost me at this point. I’m not buying the Ragnarok DLC. It will just be more of the same non-sense from Reda I assure you.

  • SpirantCrayon22
    1456 posts

    One of the worst weeks so far.

    Gothic Sail for the sixth time. Two other Gothic items have never appeared.
    Draugr Tailpiece for the third time. At least 216 items have never appeared.
    Svipul for the third time. Two other Valkyrie items have never appeared.
    Surtr Sword for the third time. Three other Hel's Damnation items have never appeared.
    Dvalinn for the third time. Two other Niflheim items have never appeared.
    Ullr's Hunter Helmet for the second time. Ten other Ullr's Hunter items have never appeared.

    It might really be random but that does not mean it's the right approach for Ubisoft to take. It's awful, just awful. Cynical. Short-sighted. Insulting.

  • TheNorfolkian
    1193 posts

    @spirantcrayon22 You forgot to mention the High Elf Armor. They finally dropped it today for the weekly refresh. Gothic Sail is the daily drop.

  • SpirantCrayon22
    1456 posts

    @thenorfolkian

    Intentionally - I only list repeats. One new item out of seven. Great, init?

  • TheNorfolkian
    1193 posts

    @spirantcrayon22 Ah, I see what you’re doing... Okie.

  • needtocontrol
    14 posts

    @spirantcrayon22 You're right about the "years", in the past few weeks I've completed 2 or 3 sets, in Odyssey. It has the benefit of the random jar thing, which seems to work pretty well overall. I'd say that's what's missing from Reda these days, at least it uses a reduced pool. One day, perhaps in a year, I will finally get Pegasus!

    Today I got the bow that gives you adrenaline, but sets you on fire on parry. From the random jars, I got the Helios hat (got 4 of 5 now), which does 200% damage when on fire. Spooky! 🙂

    Now I'm scrambling to get enough opals for the High Elf chest, while inevitably another piece will appear that I'll miss (damn dragons lol). Speaking of which, has anyone got an Avenge player death quest recently? For the last few weeks I've been unable to find one, spent ages running about all the usual busy places but nothing appears?

  • SpirantCrayon22
    1456 posts

    @needtocontrol

    There are threads about the avenge quests. I did get one quite quickly for the weekly Connect quest. It seems I was luckier than others, though. There have been times like this, when they're rare (I have only had that one), then it got a lot better (too many, even?). Seems to have gone back. We have now been told that it IS related to Eivor getting killed. That means some might revert to the old "plan A" of going to Scotthoh Farm in East Anglia, dying a few times to try and help others and just hanging around there for minute after minute after minute. Good luck!

  • needtocontrol
    14 posts

    @spirantcrayon22 I was trying to remember where that was, thanks, I'll give it a go.

  • SpirantCrayon22
    1456 posts

    and another outing for Ywain rather than one of the four Knight of the Round Table items that haven't appeared

  • SpirantCrayon22
    1456 posts

    Jormungandr Bracers repeated today rather than one of the twelve items from that set that haven't appeared.

  • VegasHeart
    104 posts

    Seems this topic is going it own way.Ubisoft support not even looking at it anymore or they have nothing to tell.Not even accepted what I suggested.Damn for holidays they could give at least one item,Pine tree,for example,but that seems to hard for them.
    @SpirantCrayon22 you must be really patience to keep looking at this topic.I lost a reason check it,because it looks like we complaining for nothing.
    The last two weeks were the biggest disappointment for me,like repeats,repeats and even more repeats.Seems they released Knight of the Round table and Isu(mentioned gears only),cuz they have only 1 or 2 parts missing.The big question when they give the rest.Meanwhile 7 sets still locked inside store.Most funniest mount from new sets that Kitsune.Looks like mount for Ahri from LOL,at least they have same tails 😄

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